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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4966
Issue Time: 2025 May 16 0742 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 May 16 0742 UTC
Valid To: 2025 May 16 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1040
Issue Time: 2025 May 15 2252 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 16:  None (Below G1)   May 17:  None (Below G1)   May 18:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 May follow.
Solar flux 119 and estimated planetary A-index 13.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 May was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 May 016
Estimated Ap 15 May 012
Predicted Ap 16 May-18 May 008-015-025

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           01/20/30
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 16 May - 18 May
             May 16    May 17    May 18
00-03UT        2.33      3.33      3.67
03-06UT        2.33      2.00      3.67
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      4.00
09-12UT        1.67      3.00      4.67
12-15UT        2.33      3.00      3.67
15-18UT        2.33      3.67      3.67
18-21UT        2.00      3.33      4.00
21-00UT        2.33      3.33      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2025

             May 16       May 17       May 18
00-03UT       2.33         3.33         3.67
03-06UT       3.00         2.00         3.67
06-09UT       3.00         2.00         4.00
09-12UT       2.00         3.00         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       2.33         3.00         3.67
15-18UT       1.33         3.67         3.67
18-21UT       1.33         3.33         4.00
21-00UT       2.33         3.33         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May
due to CH HSS onset.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2025

              May 16  May 17  May 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 15 2025 1721 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2025

              May 16        May 17        May 18
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           25%

Rationale: There remains a 65% chance that M-Class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will occur through 18 May with a
30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels during the same time due to
the complex magnetic field within Region 4087.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2.1/1f at 15/1721 UTC
from Region 4087 (N15E32, Dho/beta-gamma-delta). The region produced a
few smaller flares and has seen little growth. The region contains a
large, symmetric leading spot with a complex trailer whose magnetic
field maintains a delta configuration. Region 4088 (N09W63, Cro/beta)
saw an increase in size in the leading spots but has been mostly
inactive. New Regions 4089 (N16E62, Cso/beta) and 4090 (S12E72,
Cso/beta) were numbered and contributed C-class flare activity. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
There remains a 65% chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level
flare activity will occur through 18 May with a 30% chance for X-Class
(R3-Strong) levels during the same time due to the complex magnetic
field within Region 4087.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at moderate levels,
nearing threshold during the diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux has been at background levels.

.Forecast...
Waning influences from the coronal hole high (CH) high speed stream
(HSS) will reduce the chances for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geostationary orbit reaching threshold through 18 May. With no
complex active regions in the west, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background through 18 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters displayed waning influences from the CH HSS. Total
field (Bt) was around 5-9 nT with a variable north-south (Bz) component
between +4/-6 nT. The average wind speeds were around 430 km/s with a
predominantly negative (towards the Sun) phi angle.

.Forecast...
A CME associated with a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere is
expected to pass above Earth 17 May, glancing influences will likely
enhance the solar wind field during this time. The co-rotating
interacting region (CIR) associated with the large, positive polarity CH
in the southern hemisphere is expected to become geoeffective 18 May
which will further enhance the field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
A glancing blow from a CME associated with a filament eruption is
expected to enhance the geomagnetic field 17 May. Active conditions are
expected during this time. The CIR previously mentioned will likely
bring continued active conditions, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on
18 May.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 May 12     125           8          5
2025 May 13     120          12          4
2025 May 14     120          10          3
2025 May 15     115           5          2
2025 May 16     115           5          2
2025 May 17     115           5          2
2025 May 18     115           8          3
2025 May 19     120          10          4
2025 May 20     125           8          3
2025 May 21     125           8          3
2025 May 22     125           6          2
2025 May 23     130           6          2
2025 May 24     130           6          2
2025 May 25     130           5          2
2025 May 26     135           5          2
2025 May 27     140           8          3
2025 May 28     140          25          5
2025 May 29     140          30          5
2025 May 30     140          20          5
2025 May 31     140          20          5
2025 Jun 01     145          20          5
2025 Jun 02     145          12          4
2025 Jun 03     145           8          3
2025 Jun 04     145          10          4
2025 Jun 05     140          12          4
2025 Jun 06     130          10          4
2025 Jun 07     125          10          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey