Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4966
Issue Time: 2025 May 16 0742 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 May 16 0742 UTC
Valid To: 2025 May 16 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1040
Issue Time: 2025 May 15 2252 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 16: None (Below G1) May 17: None (Below G1) May 18: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 May follow.
Solar flux 119 and estimated planetary A-index 13.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 May was 2.33.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 May 016
Estimated Ap 15 May 012
Predicted Ap 16 May-18 May 008-015-025
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Active 15/30/35
Minor storm 01/20/30
Moderate storm 01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 16 May - 18 May
May 16 May 17 May 18
00-03UT 2.33 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 2.33 2.00 4.00
09-12UT 1.67 3.00 4.67
12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.67
15-18UT 2.33 3.67 3.67
18-21UT 2.00 3.33 4.00
21-00UT 2.33 3.33 3.67
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2025
May 16 May 17 May 18
00-03UT 2.33 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 3.00 2.00 4.00
09-12UT 2.00 3.00 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 3.67 3.67
18-21UT 1.33 3.33 4.00
21-00UT 2.33 3.33 3.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May
due to CH HSS onset.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2025
May 16 May 17 May 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 15 2025 1721 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2025
May 16 May 17 May 18
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 25%
Rationale: There remains a 65% chance that M-Class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will occur through 18 May with a
30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels during the same time due to
the complex magnetic field within Region 4087.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2.1/1f at 15/1721 UTC
from Region 4087 (N15E32, Dho/beta-gamma-delta). The region produced a
few smaller flares and has seen little growth. The region contains a
large, symmetric leading spot with a complex trailer whose magnetic
field maintains a delta configuration. Region 4088 (N09W63, Cro/beta)
saw an increase in size in the leading spots but has been mostly
inactive. New Regions 4089 (N16E62, Cso/beta) and 4090 (S12E72,
Cso/beta) were numbered and contributed C-class flare activity. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast...
There remains a 65% chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level
flare activity will occur through 18 May with a 30% chance for X-Class
(R3-Strong) levels during the same time due to the complex magnetic
field within Region 4087.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at moderate levels,
nearing threshold during the diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux has been at background levels.
.Forecast...
Waning influences from the coronal hole high (CH) high speed stream
(HSS) will reduce the chances for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geostationary orbit reaching threshold through 18 May. With no
complex active regions in the west, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background through 18 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters displayed waning influences from the CH HSS. Total
field (Bt) was around 5-9 nT with a variable north-south (Bz) component
between +4/-6 nT. The average wind speeds were around 430 km/s with a
predominantly negative (towards the Sun) phi angle.
.Forecast...
A CME associated with a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere is
expected to pass above Earth 17 May, glancing influences will likely
enhance the solar wind field during this time. The co-rotating
interacting region (CIR) associated with the large, positive polarity CH
in the southern hemisphere is expected to become geoeffective 18 May
which will further enhance the field.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
A glancing blow from a CME associated with a filament eruption is
expected to enhance the geomagnetic field 17 May. Active conditions are
expected during this time. The CIR previously mentioned will likely
bring continued active conditions, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on
18 May.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 May 12 125 8 5
2025 May 13 120 12 4
2025 May 14 120 10 3
2025 May 15 115 5 2
2025 May 16 115 5 2
2025 May 17 115 5 2
2025 May 18 115 8 3
2025 May 19 120 10 4
2025 May 20 125 8 3
2025 May 21 125 8 3
2025 May 22 125 6 2
2025 May 23 130 6 2
2025 May 24 130 6 2
2025 May 25 130 5 2
2025 May 26 135 5 2
2025 May 27 140 8 3
2025 May 28 140 25 5
2025 May 29 140 30 5
2025 May 30 140 20 5
2025 May 31 140 20 5
2025 Jun 01 145 20 5
2025 Jun 02 145 12 4
2025 Jun 03 145 8 3
2025 Jun 04 145 10 4
2025 Jun 05 140 12 4
2025 Jun 06 130 10 4
2025 Jun 07 125 10 4
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast