Ovation: South
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3371
Issue Time: 2023 Sep 28 1406 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3370
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 27 1230 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3755 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 September follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 15.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 28 September was 0.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Sep 032
Estimated Ap 27 Sep 016
Predicted Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 008-008-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           05/05/20
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Sep - 30 Sep
             Sep 28    Sep 29    Sep 30
00-03UT        2.67      1.67      2.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.33      2.67
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      2.33
09-12UT        1.67      1.67      2.67
12-15UT        1.33      2.33      3.67
15-18UT        1.33      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        1.67      2.67      2.67
21-00UT        1.33      2.33      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 28-Sep 30 2023

             Sep 28       Sep 29       Sep 30
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         2.33         2.67
06-09UT       0.67         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       1.67         1.67         2.67
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         3.67
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       1.33         2.33         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023

              Sep 28  Sep 29  Sep 30
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms on 28 Sep.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 28 2023 0907 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023

              Sep 28        Sep 29        Sep 30
R1-R2           35%           30%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1 (Minor) radio blackouts
through 30 Sep primarily due to ARs 3435 and 3445.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3450 (S18E60, Cro/Beta)
produced an M1 flare at 28/0907 UTC. Region 3435 (N10W71, Dso/Beta)
exhibited decay as it became more magnetically simple, losing its delta
configuration in its northern intermediate spots. Region 3445 (S13W43,
Dai/Beta) and 3447 (S22W25, Dao/Beta) also underwent minor decay, mostly
in their intermediate to trailing spots. Region 3449 (N15E27,
Cao/Beta-Gamma) continued to show signs of evolution as it grew in
overall length and began to form larger spots in its intermediate
region. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares through 30 Sep primarily due to ARs 3435 and

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a peak flux of 3,760 pfu at
27/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels 28-29

Sep and then return to normal to moderate levels 30 Sep due to CIR
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar
radiation event 28 Sep. Chances for an event decrease slightly for 29-30
Sep as AR 3435 moves beyond the western limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected possible HSS influences. Total field
ranged from 2-7 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT with no sustained
southward deflections. Wind speed accuracy is in question due to low
density values, but are likely to be between 400-450 km/s. Phi was
mostly positive.

A slightly enhanced, yet waning, solar wind environment is anticipated
to last through much of 29 Sep. An additional enhancement from a
relatively weak CIR is expected by late on 30 Sep. Further enhancements
are possible this day as well from any glancing influence from a
southerly biased CME that originated from AR 3445 on 25 Sep.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Primarily quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist through
29 Sep under HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected for 30
Sep as a CH HSS, and any glancing effects from the aforementioned 25 Sep
CME, become geoeffective.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Sep 25     172          22          6
2023 Sep 26     168          15          4
2023 Sep 27     164           5          2
2023 Sep 28     160           5          2
2023 Sep 29     160           5          2
2023 Sep 30     158           5          2
2023 Oct 01     150           5          2
2023 Oct 02     145           5          2
2023 Oct 03     150           5          2
2023 Oct 04     155           5          2
2023 Oct 05     155           5          2
2023 Oct 06     155           5          2
2023 Oct 07     160           5          2
2023 Oct 08     160           5          2
2023 Oct 09     155           5          2
2023 Oct 10     150           5          2
2023 Oct 11     150           5          2
2023 Oct 12     145           5          2
2023 Oct 13     145           5          2
2023 Oct 14     145           5          2
2023 Oct 15     150           5          2
2023 Oct 16     155           5          2
2023 Oct 17     155           5          2
2023 Oct 18     160           5          2
2023 Oct 19     165           5          2
2023 Oct 20     168           5          2
2023 Oct 21     168           5          2

  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.



Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
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> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

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