Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3408
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 12 1504 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 12 1445 UTC
Station: GOES16
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 December follow.
Solar flux 161 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 12 December was 1.67.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Dec 006
Estimated Ap 12 Dec 006
Predicted Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005-005-008
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Moderate storm 01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Dec - 15 Dec
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 2.33
03-06UT 1.67 1.67 2.00
06-09UT 1.67 1.33 1.67
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.67 2.00
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
21-00UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12-Dec 14 2024
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 1.00 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
21-00UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 11 2024 1549 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14
Dec based primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and
3922.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity reached high levels due to an M6.7 (R2-Moderate)
flare observed at 11/1549 UTC from old Region 3912 (S06, L=083). Region
3920 (N22E03, Eki/beta-delta) displayed overall area growth and
developed a delta magnetic configuration. Region 3917 (S08W35,
Dki/beta-gamma) showed moderate growth as well. New Region 3924 (S20E23,
Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive. All other regions have been
relatively quiet.
A halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 11/2124 UTC. The
ejecta was determined to have originated from behind the limb, so no
Earth-directed component is expected.
An additional narrow CME was observed off the SW beginning at 12/1000
UTC (in C2). This event appears to be associated with a filament
eruption in the vicinity of old AR 3916 (S15, L=20). Analysis of this
event is ongoing at the time of this summary.
.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14 Dec based
primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922 (S18E48,
Cso/beta).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to elevated
moderate levels with a maximum flux of 802 pfu observed at 11/1610 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Dec and decrease back to normal to moderate levels on 14 Dec. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels over 12-14 Dec.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was steady at
around 4-6 nT with a variable Bz component between -5 to +4 nT. Solar
wind speeds varied between 350-415 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly
in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 12-14
Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an isolated
unsettled period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at mostly quiet levels on
12-14 Dec.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Dec 09 180 8 3
2024 Dec 10 175 8 3
2024 Dec 11 175 8 3
2024 Dec 12 180 8 3
2024 Dec 13 180 6 2
2024 Dec 14 180 8 3
2024 Dec 15 170 5 2
2024 Dec 16 170 8 3
2024 Dec 17 175 8 3
2024 Dec 18 175 8 3
2024 Dec 19 175 12 4
2024 Dec 20 175 8 3
2024 Dec 21 185 5 2
2024 Dec 22 190 5 2
2024 Dec 23 185 5 2
2024 Dec 24 185 5 2
2024 Dec 25 180 5 2
2024 Dec 26 180 5 2
2024 Dec 27 190 5 2
2024 Dec 28 185 5 2
2024 Dec 29 185 5 2
2024 Dec 30 180 5 2
2024 Dec 31 180 5 2
2025 Jan 01 180 5 2
2025 Jan 02 180 5 2
2025 Jan 03 175 5 2
2025 Jan 04 175 5 2
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
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Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
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DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
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