Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3371
Issue Time: 2023 Sep 28 1406 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3370
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 27 1230 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3755 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 September follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 15.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 28 September was 0.67.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Sep 032
Estimated Ap 27 Sep 016
Predicted Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 008-008-012
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Active 25/25/35
Minor storm 05/05/20
Moderate storm 01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Sep - 30 Sep
Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 30
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 2.67
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.67
06-09UT 2.33 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.67 2.67
21-00UT 1.33 2.33 2.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 28-Sep 30 2023
Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 30
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.33 2.67
06-09UT 0.67 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.67 2.67
21-00UT 1.33 2.33 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023
Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 30
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms on 28 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 28 2023 0907 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2023
Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 30
R1-R2 35% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1 (Minor) radio blackouts
through 30 Sep primarily due to ARs 3435 and 3445.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3450 (S18E60, Cro/Beta)
produced an M1 flare at 28/0907 UTC. Region 3435 (N10W71, Dso/Beta)
exhibited decay as it became more magnetically simple, losing its delta
configuration in its northern intermediate spots. Region 3445 (S13W43,
Dai/Beta) and 3447 (S22W25, Dao/Beta) also underwent minor decay, mostly
in their intermediate to trailing spots. Region 3449 (N15E27,
Cao/Beta-Gamma) continued to show signs of evolution as it grew in
overall length and began to form larger spots in its intermediate
region. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares through 30 Sep primarily due to ARs 3435 and
3445.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a peak flux of 3,760 pfu at
27/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels 28-29
Sep and then return to normal to moderate levels 30 Sep due to CIR
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar
radiation event 28 Sep. Chances for an event decrease slightly for 29-30
Sep as AR 3435 moves beyond the western limb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected possible HSS influences. Total field
ranged from 2-7 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT with no sustained
southward deflections. Wind speed accuracy is in question due to low
density values, but are likely to be between 400-450 km/s. Phi was
mostly positive.
.Forecast...
A slightly enhanced, yet waning, solar wind environment is anticipated
to last through much of 29 Sep. An additional enhancement from a
relatively weak CIR is expected by late on 30 Sep. Further enhancements
are possible this day as well from any glancing influence from a
southerly biased CME that originated from AR 3445 on 25 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Primarily quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist through
29 Sep under HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected for 30
Sep as a CH HSS, and any glancing effects from the aforementioned 25 Sep
CME, become geoeffective.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Sep 25 172 22 6
2023 Sep 26 168 15 4
2023 Sep 27 164 5 2
2023 Sep 28 160 5 2
2023 Sep 29 160 5 2
2023 Sep 30 158 5 2
2023 Oct 01 150 5 2
2023 Oct 02 145 5 2
2023 Oct 03 150 5 2
2023 Oct 04 155 5 2
2023 Oct 05 155 5 2
2023 Oct 06 155 5 2
2023 Oct 07 160 5 2
2023 Oct 08 160 5 2
2023 Oct 09 155 5 2
2023 Oct 10 150 5 2
2023 Oct 11 150 5 2
2023 Oct 12 145 5 2
2023 Oct 13 145 5 2
2023 Oct 14 145 5 2
2023 Oct 15 150 5 2
2023 Oct 16 155 5 2
2023 Oct 17 155 5 2
2023 Oct 18 160 5 2
2023 Oct 19 165 5 2
2023 Oct 20 168 5 2
2023 Oct 21 168 5 2
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
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v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
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DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast