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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4838
Issue Time: 2025 Feb 16 2020 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4837
Valid From: 2025 Feb 13 0527 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Feb 17 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4837
Issue Time: 2025 Feb 16 1422 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4836
Valid From: 2025 Feb 13 0527 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Feb 16 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3424
Issue Time: 2025 Feb 16 0437 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3423
Begin Time: 2025 Feb 11 1405 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4741 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4836
Issue Time: 2025 Feb 16 0418 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4835
Valid From: 2025 Feb 13 0527 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Feb 16 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 February follow.
Solar flux 185 and estimated planetary A-index 18.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 17 February was 4.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 15 Feb 028
Estimated Ap 16 Feb 020
Predicted Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 012-016-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           10/15/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 17 Feb - 19 Feb
             Feb 17    Feb 18    Feb 19
00-03UT        3.00      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        3.67      4.00      2.67
06-09UT        2.67      4.33      2.33
09-12UT        2.33      3.00      2.00
12-15UT        1.33      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        2.67      2.33      2.33
21-00UT        3.00      3.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 17-Feb 19 2025

             Feb 17       Feb 18       Feb 19
00-03UT       3.00         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       3.67         4.00         2.67
06-09UT       2.67         4.33         2.33
09-12UT       2.33         3.00         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025

              Feb 17  Feb 18  Feb 19
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025

              Feb 17        Feb 18        Feb 19
R1-R2           45%           45%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 17-19 Feb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 3990 (S08W14,
Cki/beta-gamma) was stable and relatively quiet. Region 3992 (S05W67,
Eao/beta-gamma) produced a C2.0 flare at 16/1931 UTC, but was otherwise
unremarkable. Region 3996 (S17E51, Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited growth
between its leading and trailing spots, but was relatively quiet as
well. Regions 3997 (N03E28, Cai/beta), 3998 (S14E66, Cao/beta) and 3999
(N05E33, Cro/beta) were numbered this period with AR 3998 producing a
C6.1 flare at 16/1838 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery this period.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong)
activity through 19 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 3,930 pfu observed at 16/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate
to high levels through early to mid 17 Feb and then return to normal to
moderate levels by 18 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 18 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated under negative polarity CH HSS
conditions. Total field ranged 4-6 nT and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT.
Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~640 km/s to ~520 km/s. Phi
was predominantly negative until approximately 16/1527 UTC and was
variable there after with longer periods of positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to gradually diminish
through 18 Feb. There is a chance for proximity-like CME influences on
18 Feb that may cause an additional disturbance, but this is low
confidence. Any remaining enhancements are anticipated to continue to
gradually wane over the course of 19 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue through 18 Feb
as negative polarity CH HSS effects wane. There is a chance for G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming by early to mid 18 Feb with any glancing
influences from a CME that left the Sun on 15 Feb. However, this is low
confidence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on 19
Feb as any remaining negative polarity CH HSS effects end and a possible
transition to a weak, positive polarity CH HSS regime begins.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Feb 10     165          27          5
2025 Feb 11     170          18          4
2025 Feb 12     175          15          4
2025 Feb 13     180          20          5
2025 Feb 14     180          12          3
2025 Feb 15     185          10          3
2025 Feb 16     185          10          3
2025 Feb 17     185          10          3
2025 Feb 18     180          10          3
2025 Feb 19     180          10          3
2025 Feb 20     185           5          2
2025 Feb 21     180           5          2
2025 Feb 22     190           5          2
2025 Feb 23     195           5          2
2025 Feb 24     205           5          2
2025 Feb 25     200           5          2
2025 Feb 26     200           5          2
2025 Feb 27     200          10          3
2025 Feb 28     205          25          5
2025 Mar 01     200          20          4
2025 Mar 02     205           5          2
2025 Mar 03     210           5          2
2025 Mar 04     210           5          2
2025 Mar 05     205           5          2
2025 Mar 06     205           5          2
2025 Mar 07     200          10          3
2025 Mar 08     200          10          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey