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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2521
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 19 0905 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4813
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 19 0710 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 19 0709 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 19 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 January follow.
Solar flux 222 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 19 January was 2.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Jan 021
Estimated Ap 18 Jan 008
Predicted Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010-008-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Jan - 21 Jan
             Jan 19    Jan 20    Jan 21
00-03UT        2.67      2.00      2.67
03-06UT        3.00      2.67      2.67
06-09UT        2.67      2.67      2.00
09-12UT        2.67      2.00      2.00
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      1.33
15-18UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      2.00      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      2.33      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2025

             Jan 19       Jan 20       Jan 21
00-03UT       1.33         2.00         2.67
03-06UT       2.33         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2025

              Jan 19  Jan 20  Jan 21
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 19-21 Jan due to multiple complex regions on the
visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 19 2025 0332 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2025

              Jan 19        Jan 20        Jan 21
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over 19-21 Jan due to the flare potential
of multiple complex regions on the visible disk.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels with M-class flares (R1-Minor)
observed. Region 3964 (N06W61, Eki/beta-gamma) produced a M2.4 flare at
19/0332 UTC, which was the largest of the period. AR 3964 was
responsible for the majority of the C-class flare activity as well as it
maintained a gamma magnetic configuration. Regions 3959 (N19W15,
Cko/beta) and 3961 (S09E05, Ekc/beta-gamma) tacked on C-class flares as
well with the latter presenting mixed polarities in its intermediate
penumbra. Region 3968 (S18W73, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period after
producing a C2.0 flare at 19/0203 UTC. New spots were noted near S08E75,
but went unnumbered as we await observatory reports. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a chance for R3 or
greater events, over 19-21 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 21 Jan. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 19-21
Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind
conditions prevailed this period. Total field strength was between 4-6
nT. The Bz component underwent several sustained, southward deflections
of -4 to -5 nT during the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds
ranged ~460 km/s to just above 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative
with a few excursions into a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue over 19-21
Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled, with an isolated active
period, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
for the remainder of 19 Jan. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to
prevail 20-21 Jan as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jan 13     150           6          2
2025 Jan 14     145           8          3
2025 Jan 15     145          10          3
2025 Jan 16     145           6          2
2025 Jan 17     150           8          3
2025 Jan 18     155          10          3
2025 Jan 19     155           8          3
2025 Jan 20     160           8          3
2025 Jan 21     160           5          2
2025 Jan 22     165           5          2
2025 Jan 23     165           5          2
2025 Jan 24     165           5          2
2025 Jan 25     170           5          2
2025 Jan 26     170           5          2
2025 Jan 27     175           5          2
2025 Jan 28     175           5          2
2025 Jan 29     170           5          2
2025 Jan 30     170           5          2
2025 Jan 31     165          20          5
2025 Feb 01     160          20          5
2025 Feb 02     155          20          5
2025 Feb 03     155          15          4
2025 Feb 04     150          12          4
2025 Feb 05     150          12          4
2025 Feb 06     150          10          3
2025 Feb 07     145           5          2
2025 Feb 08     145           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey