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Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 May follow.
Solar flux 196 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 23 May was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 May 009
Estimated Ap 22 May 005
Predicted Ap 23 May-25 May 008-014-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           01/20/15
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 May - 25 May
             May 23    May 24    May 25
00-03UT        1.67      2.67      3.33
03-06UT        2.67      3.67      3.33
06-09UT        2.67      3.00      3.00
09-12UT        2.33      3.00      3.00
12-15UT        1.33      2.67      3.00
15-18UT        1.33      2.67      1.67
18-21UT        1.67      2.67      1.67
21-00UT        1.33      3.00      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 23-May 25 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 23-May 25 2024

             May 23       May 24       May 25
00-03UT       1.00         2.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         3.33
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
09-12UT       2.33         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       1.33         3.00         3.00
15-18UT       1.33         3.00         1.67
18-21UT       1.67         3.67         1.67
21-00UT       1.33         3.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 23-May 25 2024

              May 23  May 24  May 25
S1 or greater   15%     15%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm due to the slight risk of solar energetic particle events from
mainly Regions 3679 and 3685.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 23 2024 0216 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 23-May 25 2024

              May 23        May 24        May 25
R1-R2           60%           60%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to remain moderate (R1-R2/
Minor-Moderate) 23-25 May, with a slight chance of X-class flares (R3/
Strong) due primarily to the increasing flare potential of Region 3679.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate with multiple M-class (R1/Minor) flares.
Background X-ray flux was at C-class levels and six designated sunspot
groups were present on the visible solar disk. The most notable
development was areal growth in Region 3679 (S09W65, Ekc/
beta-gamma-delta) and the emergence of a delta. This region produced the
majority of the activity during the period including the largest flare,
an M4.2 flare at 23/0216 UTC. Region 3683 (S23, L=241) rotated beyond
the limb, but still managed a C9.7 flare at 23/0642 UTC. Region 3685
(S13W15, Ehc/beta-gamma) exhibited decay in its intermediate spots. A
new area of potential spot emergence was noted at approximately N20W44,
but we are awaiting duration requirements before designation. The rest
of the spotted regions were mostly inactive.

There were two filament eruptions that lifted off the SE. The first one
is first visible in C2 imagery at 23/0125 UTC. Modeling results showed a
miss south and behind Earths orbit. The second originated from just
east of AR 3685 and is first visible in C2 at 23/0648 UTC. Modeling is
underway for this event at the time of this writing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain moderate 23-25 May, with a slight
chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the increasing
flare potential of Region 3679.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
Normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels is forecast for
23-25 May, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels. However, there remains a slight chance of
an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm due to the potential from Region
3679.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced. Total field was primarily
6-8 nT, with a peak of 9 nT and the Bz component was variable. Solar
wind speed was below 400 km/s. The phi angle was primarily positive.

.Forecast...
The mildly enhanced IMF is expected to continue on 23 May. Influences
from an isolated CH HSS are anticipated on 24-25 May. However, most of
the HSS will likely be north of Earth and mainly modest solar wind speed
increases are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet, with isolated
unsettled conditions on 23 May as the minor enhancement in the solar
wind continues. CH HSS effects 24-25 May may lead to additional
unsettled periods, with possible active conditions on 24 May.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 May 20     190          24          5
2024 May 21     190          16          4
2024 May 22     185           5          2
2024 May 23     190           5          2
2024 May 24     190          15          4
2024 May 25     185          12          3
2024 May 26     195           5          2
2024 May 27     200          12          4
2024 May 28     210           8          3
2024 May 29     210           5          2
2024 May 30     215           5          2
2024 May 31     225          10          3
2024 Jun 01     225          12          4
2024 Jun 02     225          12          4
2024 Jun 03     220           8          3
2024 Jun 04     220           5          2
2024 Jun 05     210           5          2
2024 Jun 06     210           5          2
2024 Jun 07     210           5          2
2024 Jun 08     200          10          3
2024 Jun 09     195          12          4
2024 Jun 10     190           8          3
2024 Jun 11     185          12          4
2024 Jun 12     180          10          3
2024 Jun 13     170           5          2
2024 Jun 14     170           5          2
2024 Jun 15     165           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey