Ovation: South
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 815
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 19 1816 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 19 1801 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jul 19 1802 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jul 19 1803 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 470 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 209 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 July follow.
Solar flux 202 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 20 July was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 18 Jul 005
Estimated Ap 19 Jul 006
Predicted Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 016-020-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/35/10
Moderate storm        01/20/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 20 Jul - 22 Jul
             Jul 20    Jul 21    Jul 22
00-03UT        3.00      5.00      3.00
03-06UT        2.00      4.33      2.00
06-09UT        1.67      3.33      2.00
09-12UT        3.33      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        4.33      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        3.67      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      3.67      2.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 20-Jul 22 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 20-Jul 22 2024

             Jul 20       Jul 21       Jul 22
00-03UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    3.00
03-06UT       2.33         4.33         2.00
06-09UT       1.00         3.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       4.00         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 21 Jul, due to the arrival of
the 16 Jul CMEs.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 20-Jul 22 2024

              Jul 20  Jul 21  Jul 22
S1 or greater   15%     15%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 22 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 16 2024 1326 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 20-Jul 22 2024

              Jul 20        Jul 21        Jul 22
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 22
Jul, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, due to multiple
complex regions on the visible disk.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3753 (N12W76, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, an M3.2/1f (R1-Minor) at
19/0823 UTC. Region 3751 (S08E01, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), the most
complex region on the disk, also produced an R1 event with an M2.0/2n
flare at 19/1806 UTC. Associated with the event was a reported Tenflare
(470 sfu). Beginning at approximately 19/1829 UTC, a DSF centered near
S38E19 was reported by USAF observatories. We currently await updated
SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery to perform a proper analysis to determine
the presence, if any, of an Earth-directed component.

Of the 18 numbered active regions with spots on the visible disk, only
Region 3744 (N16W55, Cro/beta), Region 3759 (S07E23, Dao/beta), and
newly numbered Region 3761 (S10E13, Dai/beta) exhibited growth. The
remaining regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight chance for further X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 20-22 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20-22 Jul. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor)
storm levels on 20-22 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at or near background conditions. Total field
was 2-7 nT, the Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT
around 19/1745 UTC. Solar Wind speeds were mostly between 290-350 km/s.
Phi angle was variable.

Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near background levels
until the anticipated onset of CME influence late on 20 Jul and into 21
Jul. A return to ambient conditions is likely over 22 Jul.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 20 Jul and
potentially G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels 21 Jul due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun late on 16 Jul. As CME
influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 22 Jul.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Jul 15     230           5          2
2024 Jul 16     230           5          2
2024 Jul 17     230           5          2
2024 Jul 18     210           8          4
2024 Jul 19     200           8          3
2024 Jul 20     200           8          3
2024 Jul 21     200           5          2
2024 Jul 22     195           5          2
2024 Jul 23     190           5          2
2024 Jul 24     185           5          2
2024 Jul 25     180           5          2
2024 Jul 26     180           5          2
2024 Jul 27     180           5          2
2024 Jul 28     175           5          2
2024 Jul 29     170           5          2
2024 Jul 30     170           5          2
2024 Jul 31     170           5          2
2024 Aug 01     165           5          2
2024 Aug 02     165           5          2
2024 Aug 03     170           5          2
2024 Aug 04     170           5          2
2024 Aug 05     180           5          2
2024 Aug 06     190           5          2
2024 Aug 07     200           5          2
2024 Aug 08     200           5          2
2024 Aug 09     200           5          2
2024 Aug 10     200           5          2

  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
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v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
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> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

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