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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 234
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 20 2342 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 20 2300 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jun 20 2316 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jun 20 2320 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.7
Location: S16E41
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 398
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 20 2320 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Jun 20 2316 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 June follow.
Solar flux 203 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 21 June was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 19 Jun 009
Estimated Ap 20 Jun 005
Predicted Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010-012-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Jun - 23 Jun
             Jun 21    Jun 22    Jun 23
00-03UT        1.67      4.00      2.67
03-06UT        1.33      3.33      2.00
06-09UT        1.00      2.33      2.33
09-12UT        1.00      2.33      2.67
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        3.00      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.33      2.33      2.33
21-00UT        3.33      2.67      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

             Jun 21       Jun 22       Jun 23
00-03UT       1.67         4.00         2.67
03-06UT       1.33         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       1.00         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.00         2.33         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       3.33         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

              Jun 21  Jun 22  Jun 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 20 2024 2316 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

              Jun 21        Jun 22        Jun 23
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely and there
is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts, over the next three
days due to the flare potential from multiple regions on the visible
disk.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high (R2-Moderate) levels this period.
Region 3719 (S13E55, Dao/Beta) produced an impulsive M5.7/1b flare at
20/2316 UTC. The region also produced C-class flares during the period.
This region grew slightly as it developed trailer spot penumbra. Region
3713 (S14W39, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) produced a C5.0/Sf at 20/1223 UTC.
The region exhibited additional growth in its intermediate and leader
spots and gained a delta configuration. Region 3716 (N10W46,
Ekc/Beta-Gamma) produced a C8.2/Sb flare at 20/1608 UTC. The region had
overall growth in areal coverage. Region 3718 (N14W00, Hrx/Alpha)
exhibited slight overall growth, but was quiet.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 21-23 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the
flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713, 3716 and 3719.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 23 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 21-23 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment indicated mostly nominal conditions. Total
field ranged between 3-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT
and wind speeds slowly decreased from about 500 km/s to near 450 km/s.
The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity coronal hole is likely to move into a geoeffective
position on 21-23 Jun, increasing the chances for additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under a mostly nominal
environment.

.Forecast...
Unsettled conditions are expected on 21-23 Jun, with active levels
possible on 22 Jun, with the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Jun 17     175           8          3
2024 Jun 18     180          15          4
2024 Jun 19     180           8          3
2024 Jun 20     180           8          3
2024 Jun 21     175           5          2
2024 Jun 22     175           8          3
2024 Jun 23     190          10          3
2024 Jun 24     190           5          2
2024 Jun 25     180           5          2
2024 Jun 26     175           5          2
2024 Jun 27     180           5          2
2024 Jun 28     190           5          2
2024 Jun 29     180           5          2
2024 Jun 30     185           8          3
2024 Jul 01     190           8          3
2024 Jul 02     195           5          2
2024 Jul 03     190           5          2
2024 Jul 04     185           5          2
2024 Jul 05     190           5          2
2024 Jul 06     180           5          2
2024 Jul 07     180           5          2
2024 Jul 08     165           5          2
2024 Jul 09     165           5          2
2024 Jul 10     180           5          2
2024 Jul 11     170           5          2
2024 Jul 12     170           5          2
2024 Jul 13     170           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey