Aurora Forecast

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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5033
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 1155 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5032
Valid From: 2025 Jul 11 0510 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 13 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1825
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 0433 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2077
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 0419 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jul 13 0418 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jul 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5032
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 12 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5031
Valid From: 2025 Jul 11 0510 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 July follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 July was 3.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Jul 019
Estimated Ap 12 Jul 014
Predicted Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 015-010-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           25/20/05
Moderate storm        10/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Jul - 15 Jul
             Jul 13    Jul 14    Jul 15
00-03UT        2.67      1.67      2.33
03-06UT        3.67      2.67      2.67
06-09UT        4.00      3.00      2.67
09-12UT        3.67      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.67      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        2.00      1.67      1.00
18-21UT        1.67      2.33      1.00
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

             Jul 13       Jul 14       Jul 15
00-03UT       4.33         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         2.67
09-12UT       3.33         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       3.33         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         1.00
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         1.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.33

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 13 July due to
persistent CH HSS influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

              Jul 13  Jul 14  Jul 15
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

              Jul 13        Jul 14        Jul 15
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events over 13-15 Jul.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4140 (S14E54, Cao/beta)
produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including an M1.6/1f
flare (R1-Minor radio blackout), the largest of the period, at 12/1210
UTC. Regions 4137 (N19W66, Dso/beta), 4139 (N22E03, Dai/beta), and newly
numbered 4141 (S13W76, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, while the
remaining regions were mostly stable or showed slight decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) events
over 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 13-15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect increasing positive polarity
CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT early in
the period before decreasing slightly to end the period near 7 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT, and solar wind
speeds steadily increased to a peak near 725 km/s. The phi angle
remained positive throughout most of the period.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 13-15 Jul
due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to positive
polarity CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 13 Jul, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, followed by quiet to unsettled levels
on 14-15 Jul due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 07     115          10          3
2025 Jul 08     113           8          3
2025 Jul 09     111           5          2
2025 Jul 10     110           5          2
2025 Jul 11     110           5          2
2025 Jul 12     105          10          4
2025 Jul 13     105           8          3
2025 Jul 14     110           8          3
2025 Jul 15     115          12          4
2025 Jul 16     120          12          4
2025 Jul 17     125          10          4
2025 Jul 18     125          10          4
2025 Jul 19     125          10          4
2025 Jul 20     125           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     120          12          4
2025 Jul 23     120          20          5
2025 Jul 24     120          18          5
2025 Jul 25     120           8          3
2025 Jul 26     120           5          2
2025 Jul 27     125          10          4
2025 Jul 28     125           5          2
2025 Jul 29     125           5          2
2025 Jul 30     125           5          2
2025 Jul 31     125           5          2
2025 Aug 01     120          15          4
2025 Aug 02     120          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.