Presets:


close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 997
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 13 2110 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 14:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 15:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 16:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 April follow.
Solar flux 161 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 14 April was 1.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Apr 007
Estimated Ap 13 Apr 005
Predicted Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 020-018-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           35/35/10
Moderate storm        20/20/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Apr - 16 Apr
             Apr 14    Apr 15    Apr 16
00-03UT        1.67      4.67      3.00
03-06UT        1.67      4.00      3.00
06-09UT        4.00      3.67      2.33
09-12UT        3.00      3.33      2.00
12-15UT        3.00      2.33      1.33
15-18UT        4.00      2.00      1.00
18-21UT        4.67      2.33      1.33
21-00UT        4.00      2.67      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 14-Apr 16 2024

             Apr 14       Apr 15       Apr 16
00-03UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00
03-06UT       1.67         4.00         3.00
06-09UT       4.00         3.67         2.33
09-12UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
12-15UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       4.00         2.00         1.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         1.33
21-00UT       4.00         2.67         2.00

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14-15
Apr due to CME and CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024

              Apr 14  Apr 15  Apr 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 13 2024 0502 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024

              Apr 14        Apr 15        Apr 16
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 14-16 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate (R1/Minor) levels due to an impulsive
M2.4/Sf at 13/0502 UTC from Region 3637 (S11E66, Cro/beta). Multiple
C-class flares were also observed just beyond the SE limb. Slight growth
was observed in Region 3634 (N27W17, Dki/beta). The rest of the spot
groups were relatively stable or slightly decaying.

A CME was observed off the N limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
13/1648 UTC, likely associated with a C5.5 flare at 13/1459 UTC from
Region 3634. Analysis is in progress, however, given its northerly
trajectory, an Earth-directed component is unlikely.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 14-16 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 16 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed
averaging around 390 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT with the Bz
component between +4/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on 14 Apr and
continuing through 15 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 11
and 12 Apr, in addition to continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind
parameters are expected to recover to nominal levels on 16 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to Active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor)
storming likely, beginning late on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr,
due to the passage of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, combined with CH HSS
influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Apr as
conditions wane.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Apr 08     140           5          2
2024 Apr 09     128          12          4
2024 Apr 10     125          12          4
2024 Apr 11     135           8          3
2024 Apr 12     145           5          2
2024 Apr 13     145           5          2
2024 Apr 14     140           8          3
2024 Apr 15     135           8          3
2024 Apr 16     140          10          3
2024 Apr 17     140           8          3
2024 Apr 18     140           5          2
2024 Apr 19     145           5          2
2024 Apr 20     135           5          2
2024 Apr 21     125           5          2
2024 Apr 22     150           5          2
2024 Apr 23     150           5          2
2024 Apr 24     145           5          2
2024 Apr 25     150           5          2
2024 Apr 26     135           8          3
2024 Apr 27     140           5          2
2024 Apr 28     125           7          2
2024 Apr 29     125           8          3
2024 Apr 30     120           8          3
2024 May 01     125          10          3
2024 May 02     125          10          3
2024 May 03     125          10          3
2024 May 04     125           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey