Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5033
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 1155 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5032
Valid From: 2025 Jul 11 0510 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 13 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1825
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 0433 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2077
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 13 0419 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jul 13 0418 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jul 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5032
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 12 2355 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5031
Valid From: 2025 Jul 11 0510 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 July follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 July was 3.33.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Jul 019
Estimated Ap 12 Jul 014
Predicted Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 015-010-008
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 25/20/05
Moderate storm 10/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Jul - 15 Jul
Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.67 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 1.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 1.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2025
Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15
00-03UT 4.33 1.67 2.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.67 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 3.33 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.33 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.67 1.67 1.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 1.00
21-00UT 3.67 2.67 2.33
Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 13 July due to
persistent CH HSS influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025
Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025
Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events over 13-15 Jul.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4140 (S14E54, Cao/beta)
produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including an M1.6/1f
flare (R1-Minor radio blackout), the largest of the period, at 12/1210
UTC. Regions 4137 (N19W66, Dso/beta), 4139 (N22E03, Dai/beta), and newly
numbered 4141 (S13W76, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, while the
remaining regions were mostly stable or showed slight decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) events
over 13-15 Jul.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 13-15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect increasing positive polarity
CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT early in
the period before decreasing slightly to end the period near 7 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT, and solar wind
speeds steadily increased to a peak near 725 km/s. The phi angle
remained positive throughout most of the period.
.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 13-15 Jul
due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to positive
polarity CH HSS influence.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 13 Jul, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, followed by quiet to unsettled levels
on 14-15 Jul due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 07 115 10 3
2025 Jul 08 113 8 3
2025 Jul 09 111 5 2
2025 Jul 10 110 5 2
2025 Jul 11 110 5 2
2025 Jul 12 105 10 4
2025 Jul 13 105 8 3
2025 Jul 14 110 8 3
2025 Jul 15 115 12 4
2025 Jul 16 120 12 4
2025 Jul 17 125 10 4
2025 Jul 18 125 10 4
2025 Jul 19 125 10 4
2025 Jul 20 125 5 2
2025 Jul 21 120 5 2
2025 Jul 22 120 12 4
2025 Jul 23 120 20 5
2025 Jul 24 120 18 5
2025 Jul 25 120 8 3
2025 Jul 26 120 5 2
2025 Jul 27 125 10 4
2025 Jul 28 125 5 2
2025 Jul 29 125 5 2
2025 Jul 30 125 5 2
2025 Jul 31 125 5 2
2025 Aug 01 120 15 4
2025 Aug 02 120 15 4
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast