Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2570
Issue Time: 2025 Jun 22 0302 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5010
Issue Time: 2025 Jun 22 0142 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jun 22 0140 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jun 22 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2569
Issue Time: 2025 Jun 21 1801 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 June follow.
Solar flux 120 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 22 June was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Jun 009
Estimated Ap 21 Jun 013
Predicted Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           05/15/15
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Jun - 24 Jun
             Jun 22    Jun 23    Jun 24
00-03UT        2.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      3.67
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      2.00
09-12UT        2.33      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        2.67      3.67      2.67
15-18UT        2.33      2.67      2.67
18-21UT        2.33      2.67      2.67
21-00UT        2.33      3.00      2.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2025

             Jun 22       Jun 23       Jun 24
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         3.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.67         2.67
18-21UT       2.33         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       2.33         3.00         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2025

              Jun 22  Jun 23  Jun 24
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 22-24 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2025

              Jun 22        Jun 23        Jun 24
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 22-24 Jun.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4114 (N20W71, Eso/beta-gamma)
produced an impulsive C1.3 flare at 22/0315 UTC. The region continued to
decay as it headed towards the W limb. Region 4118 (S13E29, Cso/beta)
produced an impulsive C1.0 flare at 22/0602 UTC. Regions 4115 (N22W59,
Cso/beta), 4117 (S15E18, Dsi/beta) and 4118 all exhibited minor
development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts remain likely, with a slight
chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), over 22-24 June.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at low to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at low to
moderate levels over 21-23 Jun. There remains a slight chance for
protons to become elevated following any significant activity from
multiple regions on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a positive polarity CH HSS
regime. Total magnetic field strength was between 6-10 nT. The Bz
component reached as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds varied from
~450-575 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive
sector.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters from the influence of a positive polarity
coronal hole is likely to persist over 22-24 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely over 22 Jun due to continued
coronal hole effects. Active conditions are possible over 23-24 Jun.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jun 16     150          15          5
2025 Jun 17     145          10          4
2025 Jun 18     140          12          4
2025 Jun 19     140           5          2
2025 Jun 20     140           5          2
2025 Jun 21     138           5          2
2025 Jun 22     135           5          2
2025 Jun 23     125           8          3
2025 Jun 24     125          12          4
2025 Jun 25     130          25          5
2025 Jun 26     125          20          5
2025 Jun 27     125          15          4
2025 Jun 28     120           8          3
2025 Jun 29     115           5          2
2025 Jun 30     115           5          2
2025 Jul 01     115          15          4
2025 Jul 02     110          15          4
2025 Jul 03     110          12          4
2025 Jul 04     110           5          2
2025 Jul 05     115          15          4
2025 Jul 06     120          15          4
2025 Jul 07     130          12          4
2025 Jul 08     140          10          3
2025 Jul 09     145           8          3
2025 Jul 10     150           5          2
2025 Jul 11     155          15          4
2025 Jul 12     160          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.