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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1636
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1324 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4687
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1302 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4686
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0355 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 13 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1923
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1302 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1922
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0419 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 13 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 542
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1302 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 541
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0755 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 590
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1128 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1635
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1010 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 171
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 1005 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0931 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0943 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0951 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.3
Location: S16E90
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 835
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0956 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0939 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0940 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0941 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 207 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 431
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0945 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0939 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 541
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0755 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0755 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1634
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0755 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 834
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0511 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 230 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 207 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1922
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0419 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0419 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 278
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0401 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Sep 12 0350 UTC
Deviation: 32 nT
Station: CNB
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2470
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0357 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4686
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0355 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0355 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 234
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0315 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0332 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 0412 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Sep 12 0254 UTC
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 259
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0038 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 11 2349 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0012 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0032 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.0
Location: S14W75
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 430
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 12 0016 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0011 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4685
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 11 1643 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 11 1642 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 September follow.
Solar flux 207 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 12 September was 5.67.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 10 Sep 007
Estimated Ap 11 Sep 016
Predicted Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 020-035-025
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 40/30/35
Moderate storm 15/35/15
Strong-Extreme storm 05/10/05
NOAA Kp index forecast 12 Sep - 14 Sep
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
00-03UT 2.00 6.00 4.00
03-06UT 2.00 5.00 3.33
06-09UT 2.33 4.67 3.67
09-12UT 2.00 4.67 4.00
12-15UT 2.00 4.33 4.00
15-18UT 3.00 3.67 4.00
18-21UT 5.00 2.67 4.00
21-00UT 5.33 1.67 4.00
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 12-Sep 14 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 12-Sep 14 2024
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
00-03UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 3.33
03-06UT 4.00 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 4.00
12-15UT 3.67 4.33 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 3.67 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.67 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 4.00
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) storm levels are expected on 12-14
Sep due to CME activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2024
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm conditions on 12-14 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 12 2024 0943 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2024
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater events on 12-14 Sep.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. An X1.3 was observed at 12/0943 UTC
from an unnumbered region on the SE limb near S16. Associated with the
flare were multiple discrete radio bursts and a 240 sfu Tenflare.
Multiple M-class flares were also produced by Regions 3811 (S13W84,
Dsi/beta-gamma) and 3814 (N16W22, Dhi/beta-gamma-delta). The largest was
an M5.0 flare at 12/0012 UTC from Region 3811. Slight decay was observed
in the intermediate spots of Region 3814 as well as the trailing spots
of Region 3822 (N14W10, Dai/beta). Region 3811 had new spots emerging as
it approached the SW limb. Growth continued in Region 3824 (S04E23,
Dsi/beta-gamma). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
satellite imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on
12-14 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend towards
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 14 Sep.
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 12-14 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of possibly two CMEs,
possibly the 08 Sep CME followed by the 10 Sep CME. There was a small
increase in total field and wind speed at 11/1424 UTC. Total field
increased to a maximum of 12 nT by 11/1730 UTC while solar wind speed
increased modestly from around 350 km/s to near 380 km/s. Then at
12/0254 UTC, a CME shock arrival was observed at the ACE spacecraft.
Total field initially increased from 7 nT to 12 nT before a further
increase to a maximum of 26 nT at 12/0935 UTC. The Bz component
deflected mostly southward for a prolonged period reaching -20 nT. Solar
wind speed increased initially to approximately 430 km/s with the shock
arrival. A further increase to around 520 km/s was observed after
12/0818 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced conditions are expected through early on 13 Sep as CME
influence persists. An additional enhancement is likely on 14 Sep with
the possible arrival of the 11 Sep CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through 12/0300
UTC. Thereafter, active to G2 (Moderate) storming occurred due to the
arrival of the 10 Sep CME.
.Forecast...
Unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is expected
through the rest of the UTC day on 12 Sep and likely through early on 13
Sep as CME effects persist. Active to G1 levels are possible again on 14
Sep with the arrival of the 11 Sep CME.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Sep 09 225 10 3
2024 Sep 10 225 30 6
2024 Sep 11 220 22 5
2024 Sep 12 220 8 3
2024 Sep 13 225 5 2
2024 Sep 14 225 5 2
2024 Sep 15 220 5 2
2024 Sep 16 215 5 2
2024 Sep 17 210 8 3
2024 Sep 18 210 8 3
2024 Sep 19 215 5 2
2024 Sep 20 225 5 2
2024 Sep 21 225 5 2
2024 Sep 22 220 5 2
2024 Sep 23 225 5 2
2024 Sep 24 225 5 2
2024 Sep 25 230 5 2
2024 Sep 26 235 25 5
2024 Sep 27 230 25 5
2024 Sep 28 225 15 4
2024 Sep 29 240 10 3
2024 Sep 30 240 5 2
2024 Oct 01 240 5 2
2024 Oct 02 240 5 2
2024 Oct 03 230 5 2
2024 Oct 04 220 5 2
2024 Oct 05 220 10 3
v4.16b
Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast
