Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3408
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 12 1504 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 12 1445 UTC
Station: GOES16
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 December follow.
Solar flux 161 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 12 December was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Dec 006
Estimated Ap 12 Dec 006
Predicted Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005-005-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Dec - 15 Dec
             Dec 13    Dec 14    Dec 15
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      2.33
03-06UT        1.67      1.67      2.00
06-09UT        1.67      1.33      1.67
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.67      2.00
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      2.00
18-21UT        1.33      1.33      2.67
21-00UT        1.33      1.33      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

             Dec 12       Dec 13       Dec 14
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
06-09UT       1.00         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.67
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
21-00UT       1.33         1.33         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

              Dec 12  Dec 13  Dec 14
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 11 2024 1549 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

              Dec 12        Dec 13        Dec 14
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14
Dec based primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and
3922.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity reached high levels due to an M6.7 (R2-Moderate)
flare observed at 11/1549 UTC from old Region 3912 (S06, L=083). Region
3920 (N22E03, Eki/beta-delta) displayed overall area growth and
developed a delta magnetic configuration. Region 3917 (S08W35,
Dki/beta-gamma) showed moderate growth as well. New Region 3924 (S20E23,
Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive. All other regions have been
relatively quiet.

A halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 11/2124 UTC. The
ejecta was determined to have originated from behind the limb, so no
Earth-directed component is expected.

An additional narrow CME was observed off the SW beginning at 12/1000
UTC (in C2). This event appears to be associated with a filament
eruption in the vicinity of old AR 3916 (S15, L=20). Analysis of this
event is ongoing at the time of this summary.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14 Dec based
primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922 (S18E48,
Cso/beta).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to elevated
moderate levels with a maximum flux of 802 pfu observed at 11/1610 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Dec and decrease back to normal to moderate levels on 14 Dec. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels over 12-14 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was steady at
around 4-6 nT with a variable Bz component between -5 to +4 nT. Solar
wind speeds varied between 350-415 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly
in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 12-14
Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an isolated
unsettled period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at mostly quiet levels on
12-14 Dec.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Dec 09     180           8          3
2024 Dec 10     175           8          3
2024 Dec 11     175           8          3
2024 Dec 12     180           8          3
2024 Dec 13     180           6          2
2024 Dec 14     180           8          3
2024 Dec 15     170           5          2
2024 Dec 16     170           8          3
2024 Dec 17     175           8          3
2024 Dec 18     175           8          3
2024 Dec 19     175          12          4
2024 Dec 20     175           8          3
2024 Dec 21     185           5          2
2024 Dec 22     190           5          2
2024 Dec 23     185           5          2
2024 Dec 24     185           5          2
2024 Dec 25     180           5          2
2024 Dec 26     180           5          2
2024 Dec 27     190           5          2
2024 Dec 28     185           5          2
2024 Dec 29     185           5          2
2024 Dec 30     180           5          2
2024 Dec 31     180           5          2
2025 Jan 01     180           5          2
2025 Jan 02     180           5          2
2025 Jan 03     175           5          2
2025 Jan 04     175           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.